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Beware the Ides of May
The middle of May, next month, say three weeks away, is when we should know what will happen to the US economy. The effects on the global economy show…
Apr 29
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Beware the Ides of May
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Global Equity Valuations
In earlier posts, I called a general bear market. The valuation picture is good for most non-US markets. I think this bear market will be concentrated…
Apr 28
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Global Equity Valuations
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Best Global Idea: ASX Gold Stocks
The die is cast now. We are in a precious metals bull market led by gold and ASX listed gold miners are in the box seat. We lay out the case, and our…
Apr 27
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Best Global Idea: ASX Gold Stocks
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The Global Themescape: Sol
Confidence is the Elixir of Successful Business. Without it the economy does not amount to a hill of beans. These are tough times to remain confident.
Apr 26
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The Global Themescape: Sol
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Global Themescape: Jupiter
Some businesses serve our need to avoid bad outcomes. While not pessimistic by nature, humans will buy services to offset a rainy day. Insurance and…
Apr 22
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Global Themescape: Jupiter
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Global Themescape: Mars
The overarching thematic of this investment landscape is conflict. We are in the early stages of a US-led global trade war, so it is key to stay sharp…
Apr 19
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Global Themescape: Mars
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The Global Investment Themescape
Thematic investing is an often-ill-defined area of the market that is generally associated with "hot fund" launches. I use the idea to guide research.
Apr 18
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The Global Investment Themescape
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The gift of a Bear rally
President Trump has underscored his mercurial nature with a "pause" on the tariff War on Everybody, with the exception of China. I will be a seller of…
Apr 10
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The gift of a Bear rally
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Navigating Bear markets
Bear market conditions are far and away the most challenging markets for every investor, whether experienced, or not. Markets move fast. Here are tips…
Apr 6
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Navigating Bear markets
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What is the actual plan?
There has been so much thunder and lightning from President Trump that it can be difficult to discern any plan in the barrage of tweets and Executive…
Apr 5
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What is the actual plan?
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March 2025
Revision of "Best Idea": Exit Walmart
The world has changed a lot since I penned my Walmart best idea from a hospital bed. This note serves to warn of the new risks, which are obvious, and…
Mar 31
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Revision of "Best Idea": Exit Walmart
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Introducing the 'Causeway Bay Eight' of Hong Kong Listed C-Tech Names
The world does not turn on American technology alone. Nor will it spin off its axis if China should develop cost-effective useful technology. It is time…
Mar 31
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Introducing the 'Causeway Bay Eight' of Hong Kong Listed C-Tech Names
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Gap in traffic
A major change in the primary trend of a stock market is difficult to navigate. Here we advise on moving by stages and choosing to move when you see a…
Mar 24
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Gap in traffic
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February 2025
China Tech and European Financials
The new year has opened with some major contrarian moves in global markets. The market noise is American. The market action and value are in China tech…
Feb 27
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China Tech and European Financials
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Everything has gone Gothic...
The US continues to assert primacy over anything and everything that moves. This will be a tricky cycle to navigate, but we remain constructive on…
Feb 9
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Everything has gone Gothic...
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January 2025
Opportunity amid Deep Panic
The AI revolution likely has decades to play out. However, we appear to be at a turning point. Open, small and smart versus closed, big and not so…
Jan 31
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Opportunity amid Deep Panic
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Asset allocation in a time of uncertainty
There is great uncertainty about the course of markets this year. In this note, we look at defensive assets, IAU and SHV, to complement our KISS…
Jan 20
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Asset allocation in a time of uncertainty
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The Naughty vs. Nice China A-Share List
These days folks in Washington D.C. have decided to do some stock-picking. Using their input, we compile a Naughty vs. Nice list of China A-Shares for…
Jan 4
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The Naughty vs. Nice China A-Share List
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December 2024
Unboxing our KISS portfolio: IOZ+IOO
In the last stack, I mentioned a few options for ASX-focused investors to build their core equity portfolio using ETF product. Here we unbox the actual…
Dec 20, 2024
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Unboxing our KISS portfolio: IOZ+IOO
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Going global with ETF product
In this stack, we look at ASX listed Exchange Traded Product (ETP) and a short list of equity ETFs that can be used to build non-Australian exposure via…
Dec 17, 2024
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Going global with ETF product
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The World According to Jevons
This is the best of times and the worst of times. We have an insane global political class intent on zero-sum games to destroy living standards. Then we…
Dec 7, 2024
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The World According to Jevons
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November 2024
Oreshnik: Why the missile type matters
Since the Russian launch of the Oreshnik missile in an attack on an underground missile factory in Dnipro, Ukraine, there has been much commentary. The…
Nov 30, 2024
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Oreshnik: Why the missile type matters
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Best ideas focus: Walmart
I get out of hospital Monday! Yay! Let's celebrate with the first of a new series of single stock ideas where we pick up a Yabby favored name and get…
Nov 23, 2024
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Best ideas focus: Walmart
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USA: Post-Election Changes in Sentiment
It can be useful to see what changes the market impounded over the post-election trading session. We look at the 3-day changes from 5-Nov-24 through…
Nov 14, 2024
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USA: Post-Election Changes in Sentiment
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